Some thoughts on the impact that COVID-19 will have on campus dining menus
The impact of COVID-19 safety accommodations on menus is highly dependent on two things: a.) the campus’ resources, and b.) any changes in enrollment that cause services to be amended in the fall. Obviously, with unlimited resources, there does not need to be any impact on a campus’ menus.
Perhaps the most relevant way to approach this topic is to view a menu as being the intersection of operational constraints and customer preferences and needs. Using this as a framework, here are a few informed guesses at which challenges and potential solutions will likely emerge this fall:
Cycle menus will increasingly become a thing of the past.
With limited seating and reduced daily diners, dining programs will be forced to rethink the scope of dining hall menus. No longer can the demand for variety be satisfied by simply placing a large number of dishes at each service point. Rather, operations will have to develop a new menu strategy that is leaner, more rapidly changing, targeted and responsive.
In any case, cycle menus offer little by way of value and satisfaction to college diners and have long needed to be retired.
The operational challenges of COVID-19 will fast forward the current trend, pushing high-performing programs away from cycle menus and into more active and responsive dialog with their remaining customers. For instance, in place of a set 4- or 5-week menu cycle, one could imagine a campus using social media to invite student diner input into upcoming menus as a strategy to drive satisfaction and participation. Once that kind of direct interaction has been established, there will be no going back to the chef-driven cycle menu.
Decreased overall volume will require expanded and more innovative Grab-n-Go menus.
Whether it is decreased enrollment and meal plan subscription, or the impact of distance learning on campus traffic, it’s a sure bet that revenue will be down significantly for FY20-21. This will put a huge strain on labor costs and force campus dining programs to focus on labor efficiency to a greater degree than ever. In turn, both traditional and unmanned convenience stores will become increasingly important in meeting the dining needs on campus. As dining programs shrink their concept portfolios, meeting the demand for variety and authentic flavors will fall more heavily on these operations.
To meet this trend, dining programs will need to expand their Grab-n-Go menus to make up for the loss of options elsewhere. This will be both in ready-to-eat items as well as those taken to be reheated later. Quality, variety and simplicity will win here and allow innovative programs to maintain variety while reducing labor and outlet distribution.
Take-out and delivery will open opportunities for greater use of remote kitchens and commissaries.
Faced with the challenges of social distancing and minimizing interpersonal contact in compliance with consumer safety guidelines, many campus programs already emphasize take-out and delivery to a much greater extent than before the onset of COVID-19. There is every reason to believe that this will continue into the fall and will increase as campuses approach full capacity, especially while the virus remains uncontained.
Making delivery and takeout options as varied and appealing as possible will be critical to maintaining satisfaction and balancing demand for limited seating with driving revenue and adequately serving the campus community.
The establishment of ghost kitchens and commissaries to centralize and concentrate culinary talent will be an increasingly important strategy for comprehensive dining programs. Innovative programs will need to develop new recipes or retool procedures for existing recipes to match the new reality of remote assembly for take-out and delivery.
Kitchen procedures will innovate to enable customization in the absence of self-serve condiment and topping stations.
As campus traffic begins to return next fall, students will quickly adapt to the new normal of reduced menus, limited seating, social distancing and the other effects that we are seeing played out in real time since the spring shutdowns.
Once campus comfort levels begin to return, the familiar demand for variety and customization will return as well. After all, consumer preferences have not changed. Finding ways to customize and provide variety within a limited menu and with limited labor will be key to meeting this challenge.
Solutions here may overlap with the ghost kitchens or commissaries in which individualized garnishes, spreads and condiments can be produced in bulk and delivered in single servings to remote locations. New ordering systems combined with assembly procedures similar to what is seen in major fast food chains such as Subway or Chipotle may also offer solutions to forward-thinking programs.
Food safety and takeout will eclipse sustainability as a key goal.
Take-out and delivery will drive consumption of packaging and disposables of all kinds until COVID-19 concerns have subsided. Food safety in the supply chain will be critical and may drive programs away from small local producers. The net effect will be a step back in sustainability for the foreseeable future in favor of increased food safety and health precautions.
Adaptation discussions across university departments acknowledge the setback for sustainability, but look to make the best buying decisions during this time. Many dining programs are avoiding the purchase of “the really bad disposables” and are making a balanced choice of product type and cost in their packaging selections. Although this is a small step, it is still a positive step towards a more sustainable future.
An Opportunity to Rethink
In sum, dining programs are going to go through a financial and operational crucible over the course of the next year. The really visionary dining programs will use this as an opportunity to rethink their operational parameter, cut dead wood and innovate. If they can do that successfully, they will emerge stronger and more resilient once COVID-19 concerns decline.